2019 Portland Real Estate Market Forecast (1st)

2019 portland real estate market forecast

Here is our early 2019 Portland real estate market forecast. We will follow up with our final 2019 housing market forecast this coming January. Below are early real estate industry housing forecasts for the country and for the Portland market.

National Real Estate Market 2019 Predictions:

  • Zillow 6.6% Housing Price Increase
  • CoreLogic 5.1% Housing Price Increase
  • Realtor.com 5% Housing Price Increase

Portland Real Estate Market 2019 Predictions:

  • Zillow 2.1% Housing Price Increase
  • My prediction 1.5% Housing Price Increase

Will my Home Gain or Lose Value in Portland in 2019?

If you own a luxury home or a condo in the Portland metro area, chances are decent your property has already started losing value in 2018 and will continue to lose value in 2019 and for a few years to come. If you own a detached home priced under median value in Portland (a touch over 400K) then your property value will likely increase in 2019, but not by much. The 500K to 800K range will increase or decrease depending on location, but if there is any increase in this real estate market range it will be very minimal in 2019 and flat or decrease by 2020 and certainly decrease in the years following 2020. High demand neighborhoods and school districts may not yet feel the market cooling in 2018 here in Portland, but they will likely feel it in 2019 and certainly by 2020. Unless you are keeping a very close eye on the Portland real estate market, you may have missed the downturn. The spring is always the hottest season in the Portland housing market, but it has cooled off significantly since then – much more than in typical seasonal trends.

Should I Buy a Home in a Cooling Market?

There are tremendous advantages in owning a home verse renting a home. These advantages are so strong they typically outrank a cooling market (but not a crash). I do not see a crash coming. Read our article, “Top 5 Reasons to Buy a Portland Home” for more. Buy smart!

Luxury Real Estate Market Portland 2019 Forecast

Homes of any type priced 800,000 and above will lose 5% of value in the Portland metro area. Homes priced 800K to 1 Million are in the hardest hit market segment in 2018 so far. See our article for the latest 2018 Portland housing market update. Much of the new construction in Portland has been high priced luxury homes for the last few years, adding luxury inventory above and beyond what the local market can handle. Also, the huge influx of Portland luxury apartments has targeted this same potential buyer for luxury home sales, decreasing the potential buyer pool significantly. Those luxury apartment complexes have significant vacancy rates right now and prices are dropping fast and will continue to drop.

The Portland Condo Market 2019 Forecast

Due to the huge influx of apartment complexes in Portland over the last few years, the Portland condo market has suffered. The condo market is also the first to fall when the market turns for the worse. The amount of available condos on the market right now is incredible and will only increase in the next few years. It is also simply true that condos are the first to fall in any slowing market (locally) and the last to recover. This is in part due to a much larger and more motivated buyer pool for detached homes. When the local real estate market is poor, these potential condo buyers typically rent, while detached home buyers still want a place of their own. I expect condos to lose 5% to 10% in value in 2019. I understand that is a dire prediction.

Under 425K Detached Home 2019 Forecast

Good news! If your home falls in this range, I expect your value to increase 2% to 5% in 2019 depending on the area. Time is short though, as the slowly declining real estate market cannot be stopped and by 2020 or 2021 your home will likely stop appreciating for a few years.

Portland Real Estate Market in 2019 Prediction and Advice

If you are a homeowner in Portland and want to sell anytime soon – sell now! That being said, there are better and worse months of the year to sell in Portland and we write an updated article on that every year. If you are a homeowner in Portland it would be wise to consider your 5 year plan. Prices will likely continue to slump in the Portland housing market for the next few years. It could be five years or more before the prices are back to where they are right now.

For Years the Portland Housing Market was Stronger than the National, Why the Sudden Change?

The change is not as sudden as it seems. 2016 will go down as the hottest year in Portland real estate in recent memory, but the local housing market did start slowing down in 2017. Most folks did not feel the slow down as prices were still up overall last year, but as soon as prices start dropping everyone feels it.

Portland metro population growth has slowed significantly. We are no longer one of the fastest growing metros in the country. Inventory is up and the available buyer pool is down. Portland housing prices have risen too fast for too long. All of these items I mentioned are why the Portland real estate market will not fare as well as the national real estate market in 2019.

August 6, 2018
AUTHOR

Stephen FitzMaurice

Stephen FitzMaurice, Realtor is a top 5% real estate agent in the U.S. and a top 1% agent in the Portland Metro. Principal Broker in Oregon, Managing Broker in Washington he has been licensed since 2003 for residential real estate sales in the Portland Metro area. Call him direct: 503-714-1111.

Pay less (4.5% commission max.) and get more with his top 1% listing team or buy your next home with his excellent top 1% buyer’s team. We work from Salem, Oregon to Vancouver, Washington and beyond. Check out our full services areas on the top menu.