2020 Portland Real Estate Forecast (final)

portland real estate market forecast

This is our final Portland housing forecast for 2020, updated from our first prediction written in August. In this article we are going to address the financial market indicators that bolster a relatively stable real estate market prediction. We are going to address interest rates, housing affordability, foreclosure rates, construction rates, and crime statistics. See the initial 2020 forecast for a break down on your home’s value forecast based on specific criteria, such as its price range and the type of home you own. Of course for an exact home value estimate or forecast of your property, if you’re considering selling in the next year or two, call us direct and have us out to meet with you.

Portland Real Estate Market Forecasts 2020

  • Zillow Housing Forecast – 2.3% Increase
  • Realtor.com Housing Forecast – .05% Increase
  • My prediction – 3% Increase

United States Real Estate Market Forecasts 2020

  • Zillow Housing Forecast – 2.8% Increase
  • Realtor.com Housing Forecast .08% Increase
  • VeroForecast – 3.7% Increase
  • Freddie Mac – 2.8% Increase
  • National Association of Realtors – 3.6% Increase

5 Reasons Portland Housing Market will be Stable in 2020:

1. Portland Interest Rates will Remain Low

The National Association of Realtors is forecasting the 30 year fixed mortgage rate to average 3.6% for 2020.

2. Portland Homes are Getting More Affordable

I know this one will be hard for some people to believe, but it is true. Wage growth in town is up and the higher end priced homes in Portland are dropping. We wrote a researched, statistical analysis on Portland housing affordability rate here. It is actually pretty amazing, Portland employee wages have grown an average of $8 an hour in just the last two years. Also the unemployment rate in Portland is incredibly low, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. Out of a labor force of over 1.3 million, a mere 50,000 are unemployed, less than 3%.

3. Portland Foreclosed Homes are almost Non-existent

Almost no one is defaulting on their homes. Which is great news for everyone. The foreclosure rate in Portland is about as close to Zero as you can get.

4. Portland New Home Construction Rates are Down

To new historic lows! Now I’m not referring to apartments, all those construction cranes you’re seeing are creating a lot of new real estate made up mostly of apartment buildings, but also new offices and hotels are coming. New home construction rates in Portland are at a near standstill for your regular detached single family (zoned) homes. We wrote more on that here. Basically though, this means that an increasing population (Portland is still growing, just not nearly as fast as before) will have less and less of these types of regular detached homes to purchase, increasing their desirability.

5. Portland Crime is Up

Okay this is not a good thing, not in any way. But what I want you to know is that crime is barely up. The national news reports are wildly over-exaggerated. Get the real, current statistics on Portland crime rates from our article here. We are worse than some cities, better than others. Really not much of a stand-out in any way.

How to make good decisions as a home buyer or home seller in Portland.

  1. Know the best time of the year to sell a home and the best time of the year to buy a home.
  2. Stay up to date on the Portland real estate market. We stay focused on what matters and don’t simply create content for content’s sake! Whether you prefer an email digest, RSS feed, or podcast, we’ve got you covered.
  3. Work with a professional, a top 1% local expert, that knows and analyses the market, whether you’re buying or selling, or both.

January 31, 2020
AUTHOR

Stephen FitzMaurice

Stephen FitzMaurice, Realtor is a top 5% real estate agent in the U.S. and a top 1% agent in the Portland Metro. Principal Broker in Oregon, Managing Broker in Washington he has been licensed since 2003 for residential real estate sales in the Portland Metro area. Call him direct: 503-714-1111.

Pay less (4.5% commission max.) and get more with his top 1% listing team or buy your next home with his excellent top 1% buyer’s team. We work from Salem, Oregon to Vancouver, Washington and beyond. Check out our full services areas on the top menu.