2020 Portland Real Estate Market Forecast

portland real estate market forecast

Here is our first 2020 Portland real estate market forecast. We will follow up with a final forecast in January. Below are early housing market forecasts from other sources about the entire country’s real estate market in 2020 and Portland Oregon’s housing market specifically. There are not a lot of early predictions, which is why we will follow up with a final forecast in early Jan. for 2020.

National Real Estate Market 2020 Predictions

  • Zillow Housing Forecast = +2.2%
  • CoreLogic Housing Forecast = +5%

Portland Real Estate Market 2020 Predictions

  • Zillow Portland Forecast = -2.1%
  • My prediction = -3%

Will my Portland Home Value Increase or Decrease in 2020?

First we have to determine what type of Portland home you own. The below statistics are compliments of Fidelity National Title Company, other than the housing market predictions, which are my own.

Listen to our Portland forecast podcast episode.

Portland Luxury Home Market 2020 Forecast

Top 25% of Home Stock in Portland

Your current home median value is: $965,000. Your property is 3,728 sq. ft on over .25 acre lot. You have 4 bedrooms and three full bathrooms. The average time to sell your home in Portland right now is 129 days.

2020 Prediction for your Portland Home – 6% decrease in value.

Portland Real Estate Market 2020 Forecast – over 550K.

Above 50% below 25% of Home Stock in Portland

Your current median price is $639,250 right now. Your property is 2,663 sq. ft. on a .11 acre lot. You have four bedrooms and two full bathrooms. The average time to sell your home on the Portland market right now is 86 days.

2020 Prediction for your Portland Home – 3% decrease in value.

Above 25% below 50% of Home Stock in Portland

Your current median price is $469,900. Your property is 2,055 sq. ft. on a .11 acre lot. You have three bedrooms and two full bathrooms. The average time to sell your home on the Portland market right now is 66 days.

2020 Prediction for your Portland Home +1% increase in value.

Portland Real Estate Market Forecast 2020 – under 400K

Bottom 25% of Home Stock in Portland

Your current median price is $339,900. Your property is 1,386 sq. ft. on a .11 acre lot. You have three bedrooms and one full bathroom. The average time to sell your home on the Portland market right now is 73 days. (You might be asking right now why that number is higher while the housing prices are lower, the simple answer is this housing stock segment contains many “fixer” homes, short sales, and foreclosure properties that often take longer to sell.)

2020 Prediction for your Portland Home +3% increase in value.

Portland Condo Market 2020 Forecast

If you own a luxury condo in Portland from Jan. 2017 to today your unit has lost on average $150,000 in value, or almost 15%. The average condo price in this top 25% tier right now is $759,000 and in Jan. of 2017 is was $889,000.

2020 Prediction for your luxury condo is another -5% drop in value.

If your condo is in the top 50% but below the top 25%, then in May of 2017 your price peaked at $571,000 and is now down to $465,000 a loss of $106,000 or nearly 19% in value.

2020 Prediction for your above average condo is another -4% drop in value.

If your condo is in the bottom 50% of Portland prices, then your value has stayed stable on average for the last few years, seeing almost zero appreciation or depreciation. I expect that to continue through 2020.

Should I buy a home in Portland in 2020?

Yes! But do pay attention to the above. Unless you are buying in the bottom 50% of home prices in Portland you can’t expect appreciation to occur for you in the next few years. I believe the Portland real estate market on a whole is still very healthy due to our very low unemployment rate, low interest rates, a strong Oregon economy, and exceptional neighbors along the west coast whose home prices will likely always be much higher than ours. If the country heads into a financial recession then the housing market cool off in Portland may continue for more than 1-2 years, it might continue for 2-4. However, I have a hard time imagining that the bottom 25% of housing prices in Portland will slump, even through a recession. There is a great demand for reasonably priced housing and tons of renters in Portland looking to become first time home owners. So yes, you should buy a home in Portland in 2020, but just buy smart. Also keep in mind that a really good move might be to sell your higher priced Portland home and then purchase a lower priced property (I’m looking at you empty nesters), because that housing segment will remain more stable. Ultimately housing is a fantastic long term investment and it hardly matters when you get into the market as long as you hold onto it for long enough. Renting is practically throwing money out a window. Even in a flat or slightly depreciating market a long term home owner is way ahead of a long term renter financially.

Portland Housing Market 2020 Advice

If your looking to buy a starter home or an investment rental property under 400K – go for it! The skies are blue and the future looks great. If you’re planning to buy higher than that, it is okay too. Just make sure you’re selling something that is in an even higher range (you’re stepping down), or if you need to buy that bigger home for a growing family (you’re stepping up) just make sure your home ownership plans in Portland are for the longer term.

My personal advice:

  1. Work with a top ranked real estate agent that’s on top of the market.
  2. Stop clicking through those “find an agent” websites. Everytime you put in your information, whichever agent you choose to work with later, that is in their lists (and many top agents are), will owe that program 25% of their commission or more. Then that agent will have less available funds to promote your home. Don’t trust online home estimates, they are still not good enough, mostly because they can’t see the inside of the home or understand its history.
  3. Don’t be fooled by iBuyers, they exist to make money off you and will only buy your home if they can turn around and sell it on the open market – with a real estate agent – for more than they bought it from you. The public market is your friend! If you hold an auction and one person shows up, you’ll get a terrible price. If ten people show up, you’ll get a bad price. If you are able to reach hundreds of thousands of home buyers at once (a.k.a. the public market and the ability of a good real estate agent), then you’ll get the market price, a good price.
  4. Finally, we tirelessly run a top 100 real estate blog in the world. Sign up by email to receive in-depth monthly updates, go ahead and just read the headlines, but it will keep you updated on the Portland real estate market – without a doubt.

How good was my 2019 Portland market forecast vs. the big guys like Zillow and Realtor.com?

Before the start of 2019 I predicted Portland would have a 1.5% housing price increase in 2019. Zillow predicted 2% increase and Realtor.com a 5% increase. Well, my initial estimate was the closest! So far from Jan. to Aug. in 2019, prices have dropped about .08%. Now before the end of the calendar year we typically see a touch of appreciation in October and November (believe it or not), so there is a chance the year could be a flat zero or even a tiny bit positive, but certainly Realtor.com was way off with a 5% increase prediction.

August 30, 2019
AUTHOR

Stephen FitzMaurice

Stephen FitzMaurice, Realtor is a top 5% real estate agent in the U.S. and a top 1% agent in the Portland Metro. Principal Broker in Oregon, Managing Broker in Washington he has been licensed since 2003 for residential real estate sales in the Portland Metro area. Call him direct: 503-714-1111.

Pay less (4.5% commission max.) and get more with his top 1% listing team or buy your next home with his excellent top 1% buyer’s team. We work from Salem, Oregon to Vancouver, Washington and beyond. Check out our full services areas on the top menu.