Portland, Oregon Real Estate Market, August 2024 Report
Available home inventory has increased significantly and more homes are undergoing more price drops, which is creating a cooler housing market that will increasingly benefit homebuyers. Pending sales have decreased but buyer traffic has remained constant and average prices are stable, indicating that there are still opportunities for sellers. As buyer traffic wanes and inventory continues to climb in the coming months, competition will bring price decreases that favor home buyers.
Let’s take a look at the numbers that are contributing to current real estate market conditions in Portland, Oregon.
Portland Home Buyer Traffic has Decreased Slightly
After a drop in home buyer traffic at the beginning of July, the number of active buyers has remained fairly constant so far this season. Typically buyer traffic numbers begin dropping toward the end of Spring, which is the peak selling season for the Portland real estate market each year. While we have seen some decreases, the level of buyers now on the market is consistent with numbers we saw in June. As shown on the graph below from RMLS, buyer traffic has currently decreased by 2.5% compared to mid-July. As we move closer to the end of Summer we should see further drops in home buyer traffic.
In our 20+ years studying and working in the Portland metro housing market, home buyer traffic has been one of the most important metrics we use to determine the state of the market at any given time. We created the chart below to demonstrate how the number of active home buyers impacts the temperature of the housing market. Buyer traffic levels for the month of July have been fairly consistent with those in June and remain in the lukewarm range. With the annual selling season farther behind us we should see fewer interested buyers shopping for homes over the next month – and the resulting shift to cool market conditions in August or September.
| Oregon weekly home buyer traffic | Hot or Cold Market? |
| 0 – 5,000 | Frozen |
| 5,000 – 10,000 | Cold |
| 10,000 – 15,000 | Cool |
| 15,000 – 20,000 | Lukewarm (Currently) |
| 20,000 – 25,000 | Warm |
| 25,000 + | Hot |
Portland Real Estate Inventory Continues to Increase and is Approaching its Peak for 2024
As you can see on the chart below, the number of available homes on the market has reached the highest level we’ve seen in July in the last four years. The consistent pattern on the chart also demonstrates the tendency for home inventory to begin rising at the end of Spring and to continue rising through the summer months and into Fall. We expect to see this annual increase in inventory once the Spring peak in housing sales comes to an end, and with this steady growth of inventory comes cooler market conditions. Below the Fidelity chart you can find our chart that clarifies how home inventory levels impact the condition of the housing market. Current inventory has now brought the market to a cold state, and we expect inventory to continue to increase over the next several months.
| Portland inventory ranking | Hot or Cold Market? |
| 0 – 500 | On Fire (notice April of 2022) |
| 500 – 750 | Hot |
| 750 – 1,000 | Warm |
| 1,000 – 1,250 | Lukewarm |
| 1,250 – 1,500 | Cool |
| 1,500 – 1,750 | Cold (Currently) |
| 1,750 – 2,000 + | Frozen (last Oct. – Dec.) |
As we move farther away from the Spring seller’s market, buyer numbers will begin to dwindle, contributing to the surplus of inventory while new homes continue to be listed on the market. Conditions are now beginning to favor home buyers, and it would be ideal to start searching for a new home as more new homes become available along with less competition from a diminishing number of active buyers.
The Number of Homes with Price Drops is Increasing
As the amount of home inventory available on the market continues to increase, the percentage of listed homes with price drops is also growing. Now nearly 50% of listed properties have undergone a price decrease as a result of competition from more homes on the market for a smaller pool of interested home buyers. The chart above reveals the yearly pattern for price decreases, and as you can see the amount of price reductions tends to continue rising through the end of the year. In keeping with this trend, we expect to see a greater percentage of homes with price drops in the coming months.
Average Prices Remain Stable
Despite the market beginning to cool down after the more productive Spring selling season, average prices (determined by price per square foot) have remained stable since early March. As you can see on the above chart, prices have changed very little since our report last month, but with ever-increasing inventory leading to more price drops, we expect average prices to begin decreasing over the next several weeks.
New Listings and Pending Sales Decreased in June
Contrary to the pattern of the last two years, the number of new home listings dropped significantly rather than increasing in June. As shown on the above graph from RMLS, this brings the current level of inventory lower than numbers at this time last year – and much lower than in 2022. Because the Portland housing market operates on a seasonal cycle, we can expect new listings to follow a trajectory similar to recent years and slowly begin to taper off in the upcoming months.
Pending sales continued to closely follow the pattern of 2023, decreasing to land only slightly below the number in June of last year. As we progress through Summer and the market continues to cool with fewer buyers shopping for homes, we expect to see a steady decrease in pending sales over the next few months.
High interest rates and ongoing inflation have both contributed to the suppression of the housing market since 2023, as we can see visually represented by the charts above. If you would like to learn more about how these two factors have influenced market performance in 2024, read our forecast.
Our Advice for Sellers
While the ideal selling season is behind us, there are still enough active buyers on the market to make it possible to list your home for sale and find a buyer. However, if you enter the market now, we recommend coming in with an aggressive price, or waiting for better market conditions.
Conditions are Beneficial for Home Buyers
The high number of listed homes available on the market combined with decreasing sales and price drops is creating opportunities for home buyers. Buyers now have a wider range of homes to choose from at reasonable prices with less competition from a smaller number of interested buyers. Rates are also likely to drop within the next few months, and likely to drop over time in general (can always refinance into a better rate later on).
If you are interested in buying a new home, we would encourage you to begin searching now for your ideal home in your favorite Portland neighborhood. We recommend the home search engine PortlandHomesForSale.com for its comprehensive search features and customized filters, i.e. “biggest price drop in the last 7 days“.
Hire the Pros
Whether you are shopping for your first home or getting ready to sell, our top 1% buyer’s and seller’s teams have the expertise to help you every step of the way. Whether using our extensive knowledge of the Portland housing market to help you pinpoint your perfect new home, or using our optimized marketing strategy to give your home the best possible exposure, we provide top-notch customer service. Call us at 503-714-1111 or chat with the bot on this site. We’d love to get started today!
