Portland, Oregon Real Estate Market, December 2024 Report

The real estate market in Portland typically holds to historical seasonal patterns, with buyer activity typically peaking in the spring and gradually slowing through late summer, fall, and into winter. As we close out 2024, we see that the Portland real estate market holds true to some patterns, but this season brings some unique twists.

Buyer traffic has shown greater resilience compared to 2023, and the lower interest rates in September were a big part of that. Still, inventory remains higher than usual and buyer traffic is declining.

What does this mean for you as a buyer or seller? There are some benefits for both. In this article, we look at each statistic in detail and offer our predictions.

Buyer Traffic Experiencing a More Gradual Decline

Following the latest RMLS data, buyer traffic in Portland has followed similar seasonal patterns over the last few months. This year, the market has been a bit more active last last. Buyer traffic typically drops a little faster during this time, but this year has shown a more gradual decrease. Lower interest rates in September are likely the reason for the slower decline (though rates have popped back up recently).

Even with the September rate reduction, current traffic is similar to that seen in 2023 and is expected to continue its typical decline, especially since interest rates have risen since September. The year isn’t over, but we have a short amount of time left before the major holidays bring everything to a halt. It isn’t clear if we will get lower rates again before the holidays arrive. Therefore, we predict seasonal trends holding.

Inventory Levels Remain Elevated But Are Starting To Drop

The slight decline in inventory levels since October aligns with prior trends. This year, active listings decreased from 1,552 to 1,380. Still, inventory this year has remained higher than in 2023 (1,375 vs. 1,191). However, we predict a continued lowering of inventory for the remainder of the year.

Inventory data as of November 19, 2024, courtesy of Fidelity National Title.

Due to high inventories and the fall season’s slower buyer activity, it’s not surprising to see the average days on the market high in November. As of mid-month, the total is 103, up from 95 in 2023 and 79 in 2022. (Even though we have a little more buyer activity, we also have more inventory to sell through.) As we approach December, slower buyer activity is expected, and the number of days on the market will continue to increase. Lower interest rates may come into play, but the backlog from summer will likely keep inventory high for this time of year.

Price Reductions Remain Stable

As of November, the percentage of listings with price reductions since September has remained relatively steady at 50%. When following prior trends, we can expect the percentage rate to rise or at least hold steady until dipping in January. The 50% percentage this year is slightly lower than in 2023.

Price decrease data as of November 19, 2024, courtesy of Fidelity National Title.

Average Prices Are Slightly Higher Than 2023, But Lower Than The 2022 Peak

In our 20+ years as Portland realtors, we have found that price-per-square-foot data is best for price comparisons. As of November, the price per square foot stood at $315. Pricing has followed the seasonal trend of increasing in early spring and then decreasing through summer and fall.

Price-per-square-foot data as of November 19, 2024, courtesy of Fidelity National Title.

We expect next year’s home prices to increase due to upcoming lower interest rates and a build up of demand from home buyers and sellers that have been waiting for lower rates before making a move.

New Listings Decline While Pending Sales Show Resilience

As of the latest RMLS Market Action September Report ending in October, new listings in Portland totaled 2,283, about a 12% decrease from 2,589 in September. The dip aligns with typical trends because sellers become more cautious in the colder months. The number of new listings is also in alignment with 2023.

Pending sales, however, are higher than in the last two years and haven’t seen the dip that typically comes in August. This is a good sign. Still, if we look at prior trends heading into the holiday season, we will likely see a decrease in pending sales through the end of the year.

Advice for Buyers and Sellers

With inventory high and buyer traffic cooling, sellers should be prepared for longer market times and to price competitively to attract offers. While price reductions are common this time of year, keeping a closer eye on the market will bring benefits.

For buyers, price reductions and high inventory in this time of year bring more opportunities to negotiate. If interest rates decrease, more buyers could enter the market, which may require faster action and price flexibility to stay ahead of the pack. Still, the market is likely to stay favorable for buyers throughout the remainder of the year, and with inventory high, you have ample opportunities to secure homes at attractive prices.

What We Can Expect Ahead

As we head into December, the Portland real estate market continues to show signs of seasonal slowing and gradual declines in buyer activity. The market also shows signs of a continued demand, with average pricing staying stable despite higher-than-average inventory. Next spring we expect buyer demand to dramatically increase (as it typically does) and that will likely be paired with low inventory (as the holidays tend to wipe out the excess inventory from the year). By next spring the market should favor buyers (at least for the season).

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