Portland, Oregon Real Estate Market, November 2024 Report

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Here in Portland, the real estate market often follows seasonal patterns, and this year, it is showing signs of the typical fall slowdown. Still, buyer traffic has shown some resilience since mid-September, a contrast to last year’s sharper declines, possibly because of the recent interest rate drop (and hope of more rate drops on their way). But this time of year remains a benefit for buyers. Inventory decreased slightly from September but remains higher than in 2023 and than many prior years. The high inventory we have accumulated over a slow summer season will likely keep it a buyers market through the end of the year.

That said, prices have remained fairly stable in 2023 and 2024. We also expect to see a few more interest rate dips soon, so there is potential for increased buyer engagement than is typically seen this time of year (though I think that will remain muted because we have so much inventory to try to sell through).

This report provides insights as we head into the winter months.

Buyer Traffic Remains Steady Despite Seasonal Slowdown

In our 20+ years studying and working in the Portland metro housing market, home buyer traffic in Oregon remains one of the most important metrics we use to understand the state of the market at any given time.

As of the latest RMLS data, Buyer traffic in October 2024 has shown some resilience. We’re seeing slight increases in activity starting around mid-September and into early October. This trend differs from the sharper dip seen in 2023, where traffic decreased more significantly as we enter further into fall. One reason for this could be the interest rate drop in September. Regardless, the recent uptick appears to indicate the market is maintaining a steadier level of activity than last year. Buyer engagement has stayed “lukewarm” since mid-September, suggesting a more stable market.

Oregon weekly home buyer trafficHot or Cold Market?
0 – 5,000Frozen
5,000 – 10,000Cold
10,000 – 15,000Cool
15,000 – 20,000Lukewarm (Currently)
20,000 – 25,000Warm
25,000 +Hot

Inventory Declines Slightly but Remains Higher Than Last Year

October 2024 saw an ever-so-slight decrease in inventory compared to September, with the number of active listings dropping to 1,504. This decline aligns with seasonal trends. Inventory typically tapers off during the fall when fewer listings hit the market. At the same time, inventory levels are higher than last year. The market is likely still absorbing the excess supply from the spring and summer months.

Inventory data as of October 21, 2024, courtesy of Fidelity National Title.

The medium days on the market are 63, vs. 49 in 2023 and 2022. While a slight inventory reduction from September is typical, the elevated year-over-year levels mean sellers are experiencing more competition.

Average Home Prices Remain Stable

In October 2024, the price per square foot in Portland settled at $316, a slight decrease from recent months. The 2024 spring season increased prices somewhat and then those prices have dipped all the way back down by October to almost fully eliminate the 2024 spring gains. It is possible those spring gains will net zero by the end of the year.

Price-per-square-foot data as of October 21, 2024, courtesy of Fidelity National Title.

In October 2024, the percentage of listings with price reductions held at 51%, matching October 2023. This also aligns with the usual seasonal trend where price reductions increase through fall, peaking around December and then dipping sharply. The rise from around 49% in September is a sign of ongoing price adjustments to meet slower market conditions.

Price decreases as of October 21, 2024, courtesy of Fidelity National Title.

In a typical year, we see matching seasonal patterns through fall, but this year is expected to bring interest rate decreases that will likely skew results. Still, we don’t expect the change to be drastic because this season typically sees fewer buyers and sellers in the market.

New Listings Decline, Pending Sales Show Resilience

As of the latest RMLS Market Action September Report, new listings in Portland dropped to 2,589, down from 2,669 in August. This reflects a typical seasonal decline. Fewer properties enter the market in the fall because sellers often hold back listing properties during slower months. But compared to September 2023, the number of new listings is lower, indicating that sellers are slightly more cautious this year.

Pending sales increased to 2,076 in September, up from 2,052 in August. The change shows that despite fewer new listings, buyer activity remained steady. The year-over-year comparison shows stronger pending sales, reflecting a market that’s more resilient to the seasonal slowdown this year vs. last year.

Advice for Buyers and Sellers

Since inventory remains high and buyer traffic is cooling, sellers should prepare for longer market times and pricing competitively. Still, keeping a close eye on the market this fall will be important due to potential interest rate drops. Adjusting prices as needed will help sellers maintain demand while maximizing their selling prices.

For buyers, the increased number of price reductions brings more opportunities to negotiate. If interest rates decrease, there could be more buyers in the market, requiring faster actions to secure purchases and perhaps more seller negotiation to stay ahead of the competition, but by and large, this time of year will remain a buyer’s market.

What We Can Expect Ahead

Leading up to any potential interest rate drops, the Portland real estate market is expected to follow seasonal norms, with buyer activity continuing to cool and inventory gradually declining. Price reductions are likely to increase further, peaking around December as sellers make final adjustments for the year. Still, the chances of rate drops are high, and when they come, we will see some shifts from prior patterns, though not nearly as much as would occur in the spring.

I expect the 2025 spring season to fully favor sellers, with low inventory and lower interest rates, spring 2025 will be the right time for many to finally sell their homes.

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