Portland, Oregon Real Estate Market, October 2024 Report

Here in Portland, the real estate market often adheres to seasonal patterns. Currently, inventory remains high, and buyer traffic is lukewarm as it typical in the fall. Price reductions are high and will likely continue to climb as sellers contend with longer market times and increased competition. As usual, this results in more options and negotiating power for buyers.

One factor that can skew results is interest rates. The rates lowered recently and could drop further (possibly the first week of November), bringing in more positivity and more sellers and buyers. Also, we are expecting a hot and seller-favored spring season next year. We’ll keep an eye on rates and how they affect the market as we move into the remainder of the year.

We believe it is unlikely these rate drops will completely turn around this fall season. There is a backlog of inventory to deal with and buyer traffic is generally lower in this season. However, these rate drops should keep the fall season from being terrible and will help move a lot of properties before the major holiday hit.

Buyer Traffic Down, But On Par With Annual Average

In our 20+ years studying and working in the Portland metro housing market, home buyer traffic in Oregon remains one of the most important metrics we use to understand the state of the market at any given time.

In some ways, 2024 has repeated seasonal trends: an increase in buyer traffic in quarter one, a peak in April, and a drop in early July. The difference this year is that the April peak was only “lukewarm”, never reaching warm or hot levels. Traffic also remained steadily lukewarm up until today. As of the latest RMLS data shown below, this has resulted in a total lockbox activity of 18,000 at the end of September, putting us in more less in the same position as 2023. As usual, buyer traffic has declined in recent months, aligning with fall slowdowns where fewer buyers are actively searching for homes.

As mentioned above, traffic remains “lukewarm.” However, as we look ahead, historical trends point to buyer traffic cooling further as the market slows toward the holiday season. November and December are typically the quiet months for buyer activity, and this year should be the same. Still, we will keep an eye on dropping interest rates that will likely skew results by attracting more buyers.

Inventory Levels Remain High

As predicted, we are seeing more homes on the market than last year. Inventory levels reached 1,558 homes at the end of September 2024, higher than in 2023. Our current inventory level is so high, the interest rate drop or drops we will get this fall are unlikely to completely turn around the market in this season.

Inventory as of September 24, 2024. Above chart courtesy of Fidelity National Title.

Seasonal trends are still holding. We have been seeing a continued rise in inventory since spring and stabilization as we head into October. We expect it to decrease from October to November when fewer new listings typically enter the market and unsold homes from the summer likely stay on the market longer.

Inventory as of September 24, 2024. Above chart courtesy of Fidelity National Title.

Price Reductions are High And Likely to Continue

As of October 2024, 49% of homes on the market have undergone price reductions. This figure is down slightly from 51% in September but still high, aligning with the trend of increasing price cuts that come when sellers adjust to slower buyer activity. The percentage of reductions is only slightly higher than 2023’s 48.8%.

Properties with Price Decrease as of September 24, 2024. Above chart courtesy of Fidelity National Title.

Heading further into October, we predict reductions will continue due to high inventory and declining buyer traffic. Sellers will likely face more pressure to lower prices to close sales before the holiday season when activity slows.

Home Prices Remain Stable

This summer and heading into October, the average home price in Portland has remained relatively stable, resulting in little change in the per-square-foot price. As of the end of September, the median list price for a home is $650,000. As is typical, some fluctuations in price came earlier in the year, particularly in spring when pricing rises. We can now see prices stabilizing after some slight volatility earlier in the year. Heading into October and further into the fall, we expect prices to lower slightly as sellers continue to reduce prices to accommodate slower market conditions and high inventory.

Prices for homes continue to increase year over year. Heading into October, the price per square foot comes in at $320, slightly higher than the 2023 total of $316 and again higher than the 2022 total of $211.

Price per square foot data as of September 24, 2024, courtesy of Fidelity National Title.

New Listings and Pending Sales Decline

As of the latest RMLS Market Action August Report, there was a slight decline in the number of new listings this year. August saw 2,669 new listings vs the 2023 total of 2,923. This is due to August also experiencing a significantly higher number of active listings than prior years: 5,848 vs. totals in the 4,700s in 2023 and 2022.

In terms of pending sales, we are seeing totals in alignment with 2023. We expect the totals to continue to decline following the seasonal trend of fewer homes as we transition into the fall months.

Looking ahead to October 2024, we expect new listings and pending sales to continue their typical decline, with fewer buyers and sellers entering the market.

Advice for Buyers and Sellers

As is typical, October 2024 is shaping up to be more favorable for buyers. With inventory levels remaining high and buyer traffic declining, sellers face more competition and longer times on the market. As a result, price reductions will continue, giving buyers more opportunities to negotiate better deals. While list prices remain stable, sellers will likely need to adjust their prices further to close sales before the year’s end.

Work with Experienced Realtors

Navigating the cooling real estate market can be challenging, and not just for sellers. Whether you’re looking to make the most of price reductions as a buyer or need guidance on pricing your home competitively as a seller, working with local, experienced real estate professionals is crucial. Our team has deep knowledge of the Portland market and can help you make the best decisions for current market conditions.

Call our top 1% Portland real estate team at 503-714-1111 or chat with the bot on this site. With our top-tier service, you’ll be well-prepared to navigate the Portland market any time of year. We’d love to connect today!