Portland, Oregon Real Estate Market, September 2024 Report

As we kick off the Fall buying season, the Portland real estate market is already in its typical cooldown phase that started in August. If seasonal predictions hold (and they are highly likely to), we’ll be seeing medium buyer traffic and high inventory. In September, home buyers will have more favorable conditions for pricing and home selections thanks to high inventory levels. Meanwhile, sellers will face increased competition and urgency to find buyers before the end of November, when the major holidays hit and dramatically lower buyer traffic.

Let’s look at the numbers contributing to the current real estate market conditions in Portland, Oregon.

Portland Home Buyer Traffic Stays Lukewarm

In our 20+ years studying and working in the Portland metro housing market, home buyer traffic remains one of the most important metrics we use to understand the state of the market at any given time.

This year, buyer traffic increased as expected in quarter one, hitting its peak in April (as is normal), but that peak number was only “lukewarm” (see our chart below). Buyer traffic this year never got to warm or hot levels and has remained steadily lukewarm up until today. We see the normal July 4th buyer traffic drop, but other than that the traffic has remained steadily lukewarm this year.

As you can see from the RMLS report below, traffic fell 6.7% from 8/11 to 8/18, putting the traffic numbers in line with 2023 for the same period. If the trend in 2023 continues (and it is highly likely to) buyer traffic will start dropping next month and will continue to.

The market’s current state can be categorized as “lukewarm,” with weekly buyer traffic currently hovering around 18,000.

Portland Real Estate Inventory is High & Increasing

We continue to see a higher number of homes on the market vs. last year. We also see that the inventory levels follow a similar seasonal pattern of steadily increasing from spring to the fall season. As of the most recent data, the 7-day average is 1,514.

Inventory as of August 28, 2024. Above chart courtesy of Fidelity National Title.

Based on prior trends, we will likely continue to see rising inventory into September, potentially some decrease October-November, and significant increase in December and Jan.

Inventory as of July 30, 2024. Above chart courtesy of Fidelity National Title.

The Number of Homes with Price Drops is Increasing

As the inventory in the Portland real estate market continues to remain high and buyer activity slows down, we are seeing an increase in the number of homes experiencing price drops. As of September 2024, 51% of the active listings have undergone price reductions, a slight increase from the previous month and higher than 2023 (48%).

The price drops are typical for this time of year to create a more buyer-friendly environment. The high inventory and declining buyer demand lead to more competitive pricing among sellers, leading to a gradual cooling as we move further into Fall. Previous years indicate we can expect more price drops, a potential increase of 6% by mid-November.

Percentage of Listings with a Price Decrease as of August 28, 2024, courtesy of Fidelity National Title.

These price drops are opportunities for buyers to negotiate better deals. As more homes undergo price reductions and the number of buyers remains stable until late October, buyers are likely to find more options within their desired price range.

Average Home Prices Remain Stable Despite Market Cooling

Even with the current cooling trend, average home prices in Portland have remained relatively stable this year. The price per square foot has plateaued over the past few months.

Price per square foot data as of August 28, 2024, courtesy of Fidelity National Title.

When comparing August 2024 with August 2023, there is a noticeable difference in stability. In September 2023, average home prices began to show more decreases as the number of price reductions increased and the market entered a more pronounced cooling phase. While price drops are becoming more frequent, they are not significantly impacting overall average prices at the moment. This means many sellers are simply holding tight and hoping for a future sale (potentially the likely upcoming rate drops).

If buyer traffic continues to lower and inventory remains high, we could see a more significant impact on average home prices in the late Fall and winter months. Still, for now, the prices reflect a cautious equilibrium.

New Listings and Pending Sales Show Mixed Trends

The latest data for new listings and pending sales comes from the RMLS Market Action July Report, which shows some mixed trends.

When comparing the RMLS report’s year-over-year data, the new listings for July 2024 increased slightly by 0.2% from 2,899 in July 2023, but remain dramatically lower than July of 2022.

At the same time, there has been a slight decrease in the number of new listings this summer. July came in at 2,905, a decrease of 4.6% from June, suggesting fewer sellers entered the market. 

® RMLS 2024. All Rights Reserved.

As for pending sales, the July 2024 data shows pending sales at 2,191, vs. 2,145 in 2023, which is relatively stable and indicates continued buyer interest, even with fewer listings. However, pending sales decreased by 1.2% compared to June 2024 and remain significantly lower than in July of 2022.

Advice for Home Sellers

As the Portland real estate market cools and inventory levels remain relatively steady, sellers should prepare for longer market times and a more competitive environment. With 51% of active listings experiencing price drops and more drops on the horizon, this is the time to price the home competitively from the start for a quicker sale. The slight decrease in new listings this summer suggests that while fewer homes are entering the market, the high inventory levels give buyers more negotiating power.

With the market currently lukewarm and the Fall and Winter seasons typically more challenging for sales, it’s a good idea to make price adjustments early.

Opportunities for Home Buyers

Buyers are benefiting from rising inventory levels and increasing price reductions. With 51% of listings seeing price drops and more likely to come, and inventory expected to remain high for a while, there are more opportunities to find a home that also fits your budget.

Work with Experienced Realtors

Navigating the changing real estate market can be challenging, but you don’t have to do it alone. Our team of top 1% real estate professionals has extensive experience in the Portland metro area and a deep understanding of current market conditions. Whether you’re looking to buy a home or sell your current property, we provide the expertise and guidance you need to make informed decisions. Our commission rates are lower than average and our marketing and services are higher.

Call us today at 503-714-1111 to schedule a consultation or chat with the bot on this site. Let us help you navigate this season’s Portland real estate market to achieve your goals.