Portland Real Estate Market – 4th Quarter 2021

portland real estate market fall

It’s no secret we’re living in unprecedented times in the world of real estate. Market prices have risen across the country and so have home inventory supply and demand issues, all induced by the pandemic. However, according to the National Association of Realtors, the real estate market is slowing down this fall, median sales prices dropped 8.3% from June to August, nationally. They also found that the supply of homes on the market has leveled out and remained static since May of 2021. Does this indicate a cooling off period in the real estate market? And how does Portland align with national indicators? Let’s take a look as we near the end of 2021.

Median Sales Prices for Portland Homes

Before we get to the numbers, here’s a reminder about the difference between average and median sale and listing prices. Average prices will generally be higher because of a few high-priced properties. That is, if a multi-million-dollar home sells in Portland, it will skew overall average price numbers for all of Portland. For this reason, it’s important to focus on the median.

The most recent RMLS monthly data reveals that the average sale price for a home in the Portland metro area in September 2021 was $570,200. This number is an increase of 17.5% from September 2020.

In comparison, the median sale price for a home in the Portland metro area in September 2021 was $505,000, an increase of 16.5%. According to these numbers, Portland’s real estate prices seem to be moving at a pace on par with the national average.

We can also easily see that the average listing price has decreased dramatically from spring 2021.

An even closer look at the number of homes in Portland that have increased and decreased in price, we can see that it does appear the Portland real estate market is cooling. Properties with price increases have dropped about 4% since June and are holding steady. In contrast, homes with price decreases have risen to almost 40%.

Charts from Fidelity Portland.

The Portland Real Estate Market is Experiencing a Normal, Seasonal Fall / Winter Cooldown

I was licensed to sell real estate in Portland in 2003 and have been tracking the real estate market since then. During the past 18+ years I’ve noted the same seasonal trends—slow in winter, fast in the spring and summer, slow in the late summer to fall months. I write annual best time of the year to sell a home and buy a home reports. These powerful Portland seasonal real estate trends held true even in 2006 and 2016 when the market got very hot, and in 2008-2011 when it was practically frozen. While 2020 was the most unusual real estate year of my career, we did return to those seasonal real estate trends in 2021. I expect to see the same for 2022, with prices continuing to rise in the spring and summer, despite the lull we’re currently seeing.

If you’ve been following me for a while, you know I have a knack at real estate market forecasts and am often more accurate than some of the big national players like Zillow, Freddie Mac, and Corelogic. See my early 2022 Portland real estate forecast here.

According to Realtor.com their forecast for the hottest markets in the country for the summer of 2021 showed Portland in the warm to cool range. I expect this to remain true for 2022 even though home building may begin to thrive again. It will take some time for Portland to recover from the inventory crisis I wrote about in early 2021.

Thinking of Buying or Selling Your Home within the Next Year?

We hope you’ll reach out to us today. Our top 1% real estate team has its finger on the greater Portland’s real estate market’s pulse. Whether you’re buying or selling, our expertise will give you confidence to start making plans for your next move.

October 18, 2021
AUTHOR

Stephen FitzMaurice

Stephen FitzMaurice, Realtor is a top 5% real estate agent in the U.S. A Principal Broker in Oregon, Managing Broker in Washington, he has been licensed since 2003 for residential real estate sales. Call his team in Oregon at 503-714-1111 or in Washington at 360-345-3833.

4% max to sell a home in Portland and SW Washington.
4.5% max to sell a home in Salem and Bend.
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