Portland Real Estate Market, December 2022
The big story for the Portland real estate market as we approach December 2022 is the lack of sales due to home buyers pulling back. While that is the headline, we will get into all the statistics behind the drop in sales here.
Inventory is High, But Finally Dropping
Now inventory isn’t falling as fast as it did in 2020 or 2021, but inventory is finally starting to drop after rising since Feb. Inventory should continue to drop as we approach the holidays, but will likely stay higher than in recent years.
Lower inventory is important. Right now buyers are pulling back and there are simply more homes for sale than there are buyers.
Buyer Traffic is Colder than Usual, But not as Bad as You Might Think
The chart below represents average weekly buyer traffic over the last few years. Statistics are from lockbox openings as recorded by RMLS and typically represent home showings. RMLS does not cover all of Oregon, but it does cover the entire Portland metro area and beyond.
|Oregon Weekly Buyer Traffic||Status||The Typical Season|
|More than 25,000||Hottest||Haven’t seen well over 25K since 2017|
|20-25K||Good||Usually March through August last few years.|
|15K to 20K||Okay||Jan, Feb, and Sept. through Dec.|
|10K to 15K||Cold||Uncommon, usually only as you approach and leave |
Christmas and New Years.
|Less than 10,000||Frozen||Usually only the week of Christmas / New Years|
So typically I’d expect October weekly buyer traffic to range from 15K to 20K.
We dropped to 14,000 the last week of Oct. (latest available numbers). So it is slower than usual, but not by a massive amount.
Due to Market Conditions, Less New Homes are Entering the Market
This is actually a good thing as we need to work through the current stock of available homes for sale with a less than normal amount of buyers.
But, less buyers and less homes for sale means:
Pending Home Sales are Down 42%
According to RMLS, pending sales are down 42.4% from the same time the prior year. That drop is the big number the local real estate market is coping with right now.
The Lack of Sales and Relative High Inventory is Leading to Price Drops
As we can see from this price per sq. ft. chart from Fidelity, prices in November 2022 are back to where they were in March of 2021 and will likely continue to drop for a few months before the seasonal spring bump. (Even in down years, housing prices can rise in the spring. See the best time of the year to sell a home and buy a home, according to our annual research.)
The Highs and Lows within the Portland Metro
Right now homes in Forest Grove and Hillsboro are selling the fastest, averaging 29 days. Homes in North Portland are taking the longest to sell at 50 days. As is usual, the homes in Lake Oswego and West Linn have the highest selling prices at $933,000 and the homes in Columbia County, the lowest average at $424,000.
If you’re looking for a home
We highly recommend our home search program with unique maps and tools you cannot (literally cannot) find anywhere else. We also recommend talking with Kami Price, Principal Broker licensed since 2004, a buyer’s specialist and true expert for many years. Her office would love to take your call and setup a no obligation consultation. Call 503-773-0000.
If you need to sell a home
We offer a reasonable commission rate of 4% max. which includes the buyer’s agent commission. We provide pro. photos, 3D, and pay extra online so our client’s homes are seen more often and sell faster. We do everything we can to help you have a smooth transition. Stephen FitzMaurice, Principal Broker licensed since 2003, a sellers specialist and trust expert for many years, would love to connect with you. His office would love to take your call and setup a no obligation consultation. Call 503-714-1111.November 9, 2022