Portland Real Estate Market Update, June 2022
We’ve all been waiting and wondering what it will take to shift the real estate market in Portland after two years of an unprecedented sellers market. Prices have continued to rise at record rates with inventory remaining low.
While it is obvious this state of affairs isn’t sustainable, when the shift would happen and what would cause it have been big question marks for everyone.
Interest Rate Hikes are Now, and Will Continue to Slow the Market
How do I know that the interest rate hikes are causing a slowdown? We look at weekly buyer traffic reports. Typically from March to May home buyer traffic (visiting homes for sale to purchase them) increases and peaks in May. In 2022, home buyer traffic has remained flat from March to May, which is not normal.
Home Viewings Have Decreased from Expected Spring Increases
After a slight (3.6%) increase in viewings across Oregon the previous week, people were out less this past week. This has to be a combination of sky high housing prices and rising interest rates.
Inventory is Low, but Increasing
As you can tell from the chart below, typically home inventory increases from January to June and peaks sometime in July or August. This trend is continuing (rising inventory) while the trend of rising buyer traffic has remained flat. So inventory gains will soon (not yet but soon) outpace available buyer traffic.
Typically it takes until late July before there is enough inventory to really slow down the Portland real estate market. But this year, that natural slowdown (when rising inventory exceeds buyer traffic) might happen a lot earlier, maybe by early July or even mid to late June.
Ignore 2020 (the blue line) below as it was a very unusual year. 2021 and 2022 are following more normal seasonal inventory up and downs. You can see that we started out 2022 with insanely low inventory, but that it has already caught up with the prior year and I believe is likely to soon exceed it.
RMLS also reports that total market time decreased to 21 days, which means that when people are getting out to shop for a home, they’re moving faster and deals are closing sooner. More recent numbers, as reported by Fidelity National Title, show a dip in average days on the market, seen in the graph below: 67 days over a 7-day average and 77 days over a 90-day average.
But the above will change once inventory exceeds buyer traffic.
Home Prices in Portland Continue to Climb – For Now
In contrast to these above-mentioned decreases, average sale prices have continued to increase in Portland by an average of 11.3%. Taking a closer look at Portland’s quadrants, here’s what we see regarding year-to-date average sale prices.
N Portland—9.6% increase to $534,800
NE Portland—9.2% increase to $637,700
SE Portland—11.2% increase to $572,700
W Portland—9.0% increase to $818,500
How Does the Portland Condo Real Estate Market Compare?
As in previous months, Portland’s condo market is also a seller’s market but to a much lesser degree than for single-family homes. The condo market tends to be softer in generally every year, so as the regular housing market cools off, we can expect the condo market to as well.
Have Questions? Work with a Top Portland Real Estate Agent for Reliable Answers
After almost 20 years in real estate in the Portland metro area, we’ve seen it all. And while these past two plus years have changed the market in never-before-seen ways, we’re still out there working to help out clients buy and sell with timely advice. Give us a call today or chat with the bot on our site, and let us walk you through the journey of selling or buying a home. Our top 1% seller’s team and our top 1% buyer’s team are here to serve you, no matter your real estate needs. We look forward to hearing from you!May 13, 2022