Portland Real Estate Market Forecast 2024

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Licensed since 2003, with over 2,000 home sales, I write a Portland real estate market forecast annually. To be more specific, I write one in the late summer and then I update it a couple of times in the winter before the next spring selling season rolls around. Most years I am able to predict fairly accurately what is coming in the next year for the Portland real estate market, mainly because I write monthly reports on our market in addition to many other research reports including the best months to sell or to buy a home in our area. Follow the article as we move along to Feb. 2024 (as the final forecast update for this year).

Mid-2022 to Mid-2023 Portland Real Estate Market

Getting to today. Of course, we were all surprised by the events that unfolded in 2020 and as a result how hot the real estate market got in 2021 through the first half of 2022 (before the interest rate hikes rose in earnest). The Portland real estate market since the first half of 2022 is down, home prices are down a median average of 1.8% from mid-2022 to mid-2023. The 1.8% drop is for the entire tri-county area. But when we look at specific locations within our greater Portland metro we see that some areas have appreciated while others have dropped more dramatically.

Mid-2022 to mid-2023 had a swing in prices ranges from positive +6.1%+ to a negative -6.1% depending on where you lived in the metro – a pretty huge difference in experience for any home buyers and sellers on those ends.

Real Estate Prices from mid-2022 to mid-2023 (starting with the losers)Price ChangeAreaPrice Change
Columbia County– 6.1%Oregon City, Canby– 0.6%
North Portland– 6%Beaverton, Aloha– 0.2%
SE Portland– 3.9%Yamhill County+ 0.1%
Milwaukie, Clackamas– 2.4%Lake Oswego, West Linn+ 1%
West Portland– 1.9%NW Washington County+ 1.8%
Gresham, Troutdale– 1.3%Tigard, Wilsonville+ 2.7%
NE Portland– 1.2%Hillsboro, Forest Grove+ 2.8%
Mt. Hood+ 6.1%
Numbers from RMLS

Start of 2023 to the End of 2023 – Portland Real Estate Market

Real Estate Prices from Start of 2023 to the end of 2023 (leaving it in the same order as the cart above to help with comparison)Price ChangeAreaPrice Change
Columbia County– 6.2%Oregon City, Canby– 2.1%
North Portland– 7.3%Beaverton, Aloha– 1.4%
SE Portland– 6.6%Yamhill County+ 0.6%
Milwaukie, Clackamas– 2.4%Lake Oswego, West Linn+ 5.7%
West Portland– 4.2%NW Washington County– 1.4%
Gresham, Troutdale– 5%Tigard, Wilsonville+ 1.3%
NE Portland– 2.1%Hillsboro, Forest Grove+ 1.3%
Mt. Hood+ 0.6%
Numbers from RMLS

Biggest Winners and Losers. What areas are hot, cold, getting hotter or colder?

Getting Colder. North Portland was already performing terribly from mid-2022 and the drop has only widened, making it the biggest loser at the end of 2023 at over 7%. SE Portland doubled its losses to move from -3% to -6%+. West Portland doubled its losses to move to -4%+. Gresham’s losses ballooned to -5%. Mt. Hood went from the fastest appreciating area in the metro to barely showing any increase at all.

Did you notice the back half of 2023 was rough? It sure was.

Getting Hotter. Lake Oswego and West Linn is the only area to post any significant growth in the entire tri-county area, moving from a 1% increase to over 5%.

Notice the the Charts Above? Expect a Similar Fate in 2024

The areas of Portland that lost the most in home value:

A few notes on the above chart first. The locations hardest hit by undesirable events (I won’t spell it out for you) are going to have the same troubles in 2024. There are no reasons to believe (that I have found) that those issues will or can be resolved in the short term (I’m hopeful for the long term). This is combined with significant population loss in Portland city proper and growth in the suburbs (which I will discuss more when I update this article for the final forecast later this year). Columbia County is the only exception to the above. Columbia County experienced a boom in prices as people moved from large city centers to outlying areas after the events of 2020. It seems that boom is over, at least for Columbia County. Columbia County perhaps doesn’t have the amenities list (highly rated schools, downtown shopping areas, Universities) of other suburbs like West Linn or Forest Grove, and therefore lacks staying power.

The areas around Portland with price gains:

The areas of price gain increase also have the greatest amount of new construction homes for sale. New construction is boosting prices in Tigard, Wilsonville, Hillsboro, Forest Grove, and NW Washington County. I believe without those higher new home construction prices, these areas would have shown flatter (closer to 0%) percent appreciation, which means if you own a home there already, you probably experienced very little appreciation.

Mt. Hood is the exception to all of the above, the resort towns located around the mountain have been booming since 2020 and that boom has not been stopped by the rise in interest rates, and I’m not sure when that boom will slow down. Update since first writing this in mid-2023 – it slowed down. But was that just the slower fall season? Time will tell.

National U.S. Real Estate Forecasts for 2024

(forecasted in or close to August 2023, updated in Feb. 2024)

United States Housing MarketReal Estate Forecast 2024
Veros1.7% Housing Price Increase (Aug. 2023)
2.4% Housing Price Increase (Feb. 2024)
Freddie Mac-1.5% Housing Price Decrease (Aug. 2023)
2.8% Housing Price Increase (Feb. 2024)
Zillow.com5.5% Housing Price Increase (Aug. 2023)
4.2% Housing Price Increase (Feb. 2024)
National Association of Realtors2.6% Housing Price Increase (Aug. 2023)
Flat Housing Prices (Feb. 2024)
Goldman Sachs1.3% Housing Price Change (Aug. 2023)
1.9% Housing Price Change (Feb. 2024)

Most analysts increased their overall real estate forecasts for 2024 (minus NAR and Zillow), due to the expectation that mortgage rates will remain lower throughout the year than they were in the rather dismal 2023 market.

Portland, Oregon Real Estate Market Forecasts 2024

(forecasted in August 2023, final update Feb. 2024)

Portland, Oregon Real Estate MarketReal Estate Forecast 2024
Zillow.com-6.2% Housing Price Drop (Aug. 2023)
Zillow.comFlat. No increase or Drop. (Feb. 2024)
Stephen FitzMaurice-3% Portland City Proper+2% Metro Area Suburbs with high end and low end housing segments outperforming the middle. (Aug. 2023)
Stephen FitzMaurice-2% Portland City Property, +3% Metro Area Suburbs with high end and low end housing segments outperforming the middle. (Feb. 2024)

(Aug. 2023) It is interesting that while Zillow currently has the most bullish national real estate market forecast for 2024, its prediction for the Portland real estate market is dismal. When I update this article with predictions closer to the New Year, there will be plenty more Portland forecasts to look at.

(Feb. 2024) It is a major improvement in Zillow’s forecast to expect Portland to break even. I thought it would about break even in Aug. 2023 (between the city proper and suburbs), and now in Feb. 2024 I am even more confident the market will at least break even overall, if not post some small gains. However, the areas that have struggled the hardest may continue to fall in price overall in 2024.

Stay tuned! We will keep writing reports about Portland’s economic state, the rental market, mortgage rates, the condo market, and more.

Pay Close Attention to the Seasons

No matter what the overall year is doing in your area, there is a better time to sell and a better time to buy and aligning your real estate plans with the right seasons can make a massive difference. See our latest reports on the best times to buy and sell a home.

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