Portland Real Estate Market Forecast 2024
Licensed since 2003, with over 2,000 home sales, I write a Portland real estate market forecast annually. To be more specific, I write one in the late summer and then I updated in late winter, just before New Year. Most years I am able to predict fairly accurately what is coming in the next year for the Portland real estate market, mainly because I write monthly reports on our market in addition to many other research reports including the best months to sell or to buy a home in our area. Of course, we were all surprised by the events that unfolded in 2020 and as a result how hot the real estate market got in 2021 through the first half of 2022 (before the interest rate hikes rose in earnest). The Portland real estate market since the first half of 2022 is down, home prices are down a median average of 1.8% from mid-2022 to mid-2023. The 1.8% drop is for the entire tri-county area. But when we look at specific locations within our greater Portland metro we see that some areas have appreciated while others have dropped more dramatically.
The Last Twelve Months in the Portland Real Estate Market
The last twelve months (mid-2022 to mid-2023) swing in prices ranges from positive 6.1% to negative 6.1% – a pretty huge difference in experience for any home buyers and sellers on those ends.
| Real Estate Prices from mid-2022 to mid-2023 (starting with the losers) | Price Change | Area | Price Change |
| Columbia County | – 6.1% | Oregon City, Canby | – 0.6% |
| North Portland | – 6% | Beaverton, Aloha | – 0.2% |
| SE Portland | – 3.9% | Yamhill County | + 0.1% |
| Milwaukie, Clackamas | – 2.4% | Lake Oswego, West Linn | + 1% |
| West Portland | – 1.9% | NW Washington County | + 1.8% |
| Gresham, Troutdale | – 1.3% | Tigard, Wilsonville | + 2.7% |
| NE Portland | – 1.2% | Hillsboro, Forest Grove | + 2.8% |
| Mt. Hood | + 6.1% |
Notice the Above? Expect a Similar Fate in 2024
The areas of Portland that lost the most in home value:
A few notes on the above chart first. The locations hardest hit by undesirable events (I won’t spell it out for you) are going to have the same troubles in 2024. There are no reasons to believe (that I have found) that those issues will or can be resolved in the short term (I’m hopeful for the long term). This is combined with significant population loss in Portland city proper and growth in the suburbs (which I will discuss more when I update this article for the final forecast later this year). Columbia County is the only exception to the above. Columbia County experienced a boom in prices as people moved from large city centers to outlying areas after the events of 2020. It seems that boom is over, at least for Columbia County. Columbia County perhaps doesn’t have the amenities list (highly rated schools, downtown shopping areas, Universities) of other suburbs like West Linn or Forest Grove, and therefore lacks staying power.
The areas around Portland with price gains:
The areas of price gain increase also have the greatest amount of new construction homes for sale. New construction is boosting prices in Tigard, Wilsonville, Hillsboro, Forest Grove, and NW Washington County. I believe without those higher new home construction prices, these areas would have shown flatter (closer to 0%) percent appreciation, which means if you own a home there already, you probably experienced very little appreciation. Mt. Hood is the exception to all of the above, the resort towns located around the mountain have been booming since 2020 and that boom has not been stopped by the rise in interest rates, and I’m not sure when that boom will slow down.
National U.S. Real Estate Forecasts for 2024
(forecasted in or close to August 2023)
| United States Housing Market | Real Estate Forecast 2024 |
| Veros | 1.7% Housing Price Increase |
| Freddie Mac | -1.5% Housing Price Decrease (Lowest) |
| Corelogic | 4.5% Housing Price Increase |
| Zillow.com | 5.5% Housing Price Increase (Highest) |
| National Association of Realtors | 2.6% Housing Price Increase |
| Goldman Sachs | 1.3% Housing Price Change |
Portland, Oregon Real Estate Market Forecasts 2024
(forecasted in August 2023)
| Portland, Oregon Real Estate Market | Real Estate Forecast 2024 |
| Zillow.com | -6.2% Housing Price Drop |
| Stephen FitzMaurice | -3% Portland City Proper, +2% Metro Area Suburbs with high end and low end housing segments outperforming the middle. |
It is interesting that while Zillow currently has the most bullish national real estate market forecast for 2024, its prediction for the Portland real estate market is dismal. When I update this article with predictions closer to the New Year, there will be plenty more Portland forecasts to look at.
Stay tuned! Bookmark this article. When we update it closer to the New Year we will delve deeper into the numbers, including Portland’s economic state, the rental market, mortgage rates, the condo market, a forecast dependent on the type of home you own, and more.
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Stephen FitzMaurice
Stephen FitzMaurice, Realtor is a top 5% real estate agent in the U.S. A Principal Broker in Oregon, Managing Broker in Washington, he has been licensed since 2003 for residential real estate sales. Call his team in Oregon at 503-714-1111 or in Washington at 360-345-3833.
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