Portland, Oregon Real Estate Market, July 2023 Report
After the seasonal selling peak in May, inventory continues to increase in June, leading to an increase of days on the market. We are currently experiencing a more balanced market, with slowing buyer activity, rising (but still low) inventory – conditions that can still benefit buyers and sellers. Looking ahead to July, we expect a continued increase in inventory, perhaps a relatively stable buyer’s pool, and a turn toward a buyer’s market before we hit late summer or perhaps by this fall.
Buyer Traffic has Declined from a May Peak
RMLS generates the buyer traffic reports shown above, which provide a snapshot of buyer demand from one week to the next. Here you see reports for two weeks in May where buyer traffic peaked, then the last two weeks were it has declined.
Traffic has declined significantly from 22,000 at this time last month to 18,000 by the first week of June. But since it is hard to put these numbers into perspective, we created the reference chart below based on decades of analyzing these reports to translate how the data affects the housing market.
|Oregon weekly home buyer traffic||Hot or Cold?|
|0 – 5,000||Frozen|
|5,000 – 10,000||Cold|
|10,000 – 15,000||Cool|
|15,000 – 20,000||Lukewarm|
|20,000 – 25,000||Warm|
Buyer traffic was predictably cool at the start of the year, as you can see from the numbers in our last January report. Though traffic remained warm through much of May, it became lukewarm by the end of the month and remains lukewarm in June despite a small increase at the beginning of the month.
As seen on the chart below, the inventory of available homes has been steadily increasing since May and will likely continue to increase as more new homes are added to the market.
|Portland inventory ranking||Hot or Cold?|
|0 – 500||On Fire (notice April of last year)|
|500 – 750||Hot|
|750 – 1,000||Warm (Currently)|
|1,000 – 1,250||Lukewarm|
|1,250 – 1,500||Cool|
|1,500 – 1,750||Cold|
|1,750 – 2,000 +||Frozen (last Oct. – Dec.)|
There is still enough buyer activity to motivate sellers to list their homes. The spring seller’s market of 2023 has begun to cool down, however, and if you are not currently prepared to sell, we would advise waiting for the prime seller’s market we can expect in the spring of 2024. Also, there is often a second wind in the real estate market that runs from the start of October through mid-Nov., before the major holidays hit. See the best time to sell or buy a home here.
We’re easing in to a balanced summer real estate market. Studying the daily and weekly statistics of Portland real estate over the past twenty years has enabled us to become familiar with its predictable seasonal patterns.
We’re still seeing the results of a productive selling season with the relatively low inventory of detached homes, but these numbers should continue to rise through the end of June and throughout the month of July. In a hotter housing market, ideal selling conditions can extend through July, but this year’s real estate market is shaping up to be cooler overall, which means the month of June is the final opportunity to sell in a competitive market until 2024 (this is of course dependent on the particularities of your exact home type and neighborhood, while remaining generally true).
There are Less Homes with Price Decreases
In our last monthly report, we found that 35% of homes on the market experienced a price decrease, and now the percentage appears to be leveling out at just under 34%.
Home Prices are Remaining Steady
Prices are smoothing out as the number of active buyers begins to taper off and inventory rises.
Portland Real Estate Inventory is Rising Slightly
New home listings rose significantly from April to May, and if the trend for 2023 continues to parallel the previous two years, those numbers should continue to climb to their peak this month before beginning to taper off in July. (Keep in mind, this is new homes hitting the market, overall available inventory tends to peak in Sept. as unsold homes collect over the summer.)
Pending sales continued to rise, as a result of a strong April and May selling season. As you can see in the comparison with 2021 and 2022 above, though listings and sales for 2023 have followed a similar trajectory, high mortgage rates have played a major role in this year’s cooler housing market.
The Ideal Conditions for Selling Your Home
The current low housing inventory and low number of buyers is creating a balanced real estate market that doesn’t favor buyers or sellers, but leaves room for both while stabilizing home prices. This market can still provide opportunities for motivated sellers before the likely swing to a buyer’s market this fall.
What does this Mean for Home Buyers?
Price drops are coming, but it will take another month or two to get there. The current market may have desirable opportunities for buyers, so it is worthwhile to keep your eyes open – one thing we can never predict is when you will find your perfect home.
Work with a Top Realtor
Our 20 years of experience assisting buyers and sellers in the Portland metro area means you are in expert hands when you search for or list your next home. Put our knowledge of the Portland real estate market to work for you and give us a call today at 503-714-1111 or chat with the bot on this site. Whether you are looking to buy or sell, our top buyer’s or seller’s teams offer a smooth and rewarding process. Let us be a part of your success story.June 16, 2023