Portland, Oregon Real Estate Market Forecast for 2023 – Updated

The Portland, Oregon real estate market has had a tremulous 2022 with soaring prices combined with historically low inventory in quarter one and two, and then soaring inventory with stagnant prices in quarter three (and significantly fewer closed sales, reduced homebuyer activity) and soon to be falling prices in quarter four. Of course, the main shift in the market came from rising mortgage interest rates. There is a lot of concern in the real estate industry with a focus on what to expect in 2023.

We initially wrote this forecast in early Sept. 22, and will keep those results and update them, giving a final 2023 real estate forecast, now that we are closer to end of 2022.

We’ll start with national forecasts and then move onto Portland’s. I’ve been selling real estate in Portland for 19 years, getting ready to approach my 20 year celebration, with over 2,000 home sales. For more than a decade I’ve been writing researched articles on Portland real estate and will use all of that personal experienced to create the best nuanced Portland, Oregon market forecast I can.

From September to December 2022, everyone’s forecasts for the 2023 real estate market have dropped a bit further, including mine.

SEPTEMBER’s National Real Estate Market Forecast List for 2023

DECEMBER’S National Real Estate Market Forecast List for 2023

A national real estate 2023 forecast is a massive combination of rural and metro expectations. Within these larger forecasts, hundreds of metros are expected to have price drops and hundreds more are expected to have price gains. Very few regions in the United States are expected to experience double digit price increases or declines.

SEPTEMBER’S Portland Real Estate Forecast List for 2023

DECEMBER’S Portland Real Estate Forecast List for 2023

Every suburban real estate market around the City of Portland proper has significantly outperformed Portland’s real estate market since 2020. Whether, we are writing a researched market report about Sherwood, Happy Valley, Wilsonville, Oregon City, Troutdale, Forest Grove, West Linn, Tualatin, Tigard, Lake Oswego, Mt. Hood, Milwaukie, Hillsboro, or Gresham, their suburban real estate markets have been and will continue to outperform Portland city proper. This has also been true for the entirety of SW Washington.

There are a number of reasons for this. Portland proper’s population is declining, while the suburbs around Portland are still growing. This is part of a national migration trend since 2022, but has been especially true for Portland.

Before I continue to drill down my Portland real estate forecast into something that might describe your particular home, I’m going to mention the important, but often forgotten subject of seasonal impact.

The News Always Forgets the Seasonal Impact in its 24 hr. Cycle

There is a best time of year to buy a home in the greater Portland metro area – every year. There is a best time of the year to sell a home in Portland – every year. This repeated seasonal impact remains consistent year over year, regardless of whether the overall real estate market is heading up or down.

What season are we in right now? September and August are typically always the highest inventory months of the year and typically always have significant price drops and not enough buyers to go around. Increasing inventory in August and September is not news, it is expected. Price drops in August and September isn’t news, it is expected. The same as bidding wars in March and April are expected, the two months where we tend to always have seasonally low inventory and high buyer traffic.

Selling and Buying Tips with Seasonal Impact in Mind

Pro Tip #1 – Now is a good time to buy, not sell.
Pro Tip #2 – If you need to sell a home soon, wait until early Oct. or late Sept. when inventory starts to drop and list it before the holidays roll around. We always have a nice second wind of sales prior to the holidays and after the Aug. / Sept. inventory slug.
Pro Tip 3# – If you can choose anytime to sell a home (and you want to sell) choose March or April 2023. Even if you’re in Portland proper and prices are expected to dip for you next year, the spring bump in 2023 will likely perform better for you than the fall slump in 2022, even if overall 2023 is a harder year.

2023 Portland Real Estate Market Forecast Broken Down into 4 Price Segments Plus Suburb Vs. City Center

Depending on the price of home you own and whether or not it is located in Portland proper or in a suburb could change the forecasted price of your home in 2023 to positive 5% price increase or as low as a -5% price decrease.

Fidelity Nation Title provides real time market analysis broken for any metro, down to the zip code, and segments out their data into four housing price tiers (each tier represents 25% of the housing stock).

Portland’s current four housing price tiers defined.

1. Tier One would be a $1,127,950 home with 3,337 sq. ft. and 4 bedrooms and 3 full baths.
2. Tier Two would be a $684,000 home with 2,320 sq. ft. and 4 bedrooms and 2.5 baths.
3. Tier Three would be a $524,000 home with 1,764 sq. ft. and 3 bedrooms and 2 baths.
4. Tier One would be a $414,500 home with 1,260 sq. ft. and 3 bedrooms and 1 bath.

The below graph represents Fidelity’s provided determination of a buyer or seller market conditions. The top 100 is a complete and total seller’s market. The bottom 0 represents a complete buyer’s market. You can see in early 2022 all segments except tier one where in the highest seller’s market I’ve ever seen, and since then all segments have been dropping fast, but only the top tier segment has fallen under the 50 balanced market line to a score of 43 (the rest are headed there likely in Q4 of 2022).

Of course, as a property type enters into a buyer’s market, price drops eventually ensue.

Increasing Rent Costs will Keep Tier 4 the Strongest

While the residential new and resale market slumps, rental prices have been climbing in Portland and across the country. When rents increase, those that can look to buy in the tier one segment (most affordable homes or condos to purchase).

A More Nuanced Portland Real Estate Market Projection

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