Portland, Oregon Real Estate Market, November 2023 Report
The Portland housing market is currently marked by inventory saturation, reduced buyer traffic and diminishing sales. These conditions are working in favor of buyers by providing greater choice and more competitive pricing. With a likely drop in inventory over the next several weeks, these ideal conditions may not last long, though the market should continue to favor buyers over the next couple of months. Let’s explore the figures and statistics contributing to the current state of the Portland real estate market.
Portland Home Buyer Traffic is Decreasing
After picking up slightly at the beginning of September, buyer traffic has been slowly decreasing (as we predicted last month). Due to the dependable seasonal cycles of our local real estate market, we expect this downward trend will continue through the end of 2023. The small drop in October shown on this report from RMLS maintains the lukewarm level of buyer traffic that has persisted since March, but we expect numbers to drop even more significantly over the next couple of months, before they start to climb again after the new year.
The chart below illustrates how levels of weekly buyer traffic translate to the real estate market, based on our decades of experience and research. When we enter current buyer traffic numbers, we can see they fall within the lukewarm range for the Portland housing market.
| Oregon weekly home buyer traffic | Hot or Cold Market? |
| 0 – 5,000 | Frozen |
| 5,000 – 10,000 | Cold |
| 10,000 – 15,000 | Cool |
| 15,000 – 20,000 | Lukewarm |
| 20,000 – 25,000 | Warm |
| 25,000 + | Hot |
Portland Real Estate Inventory Continues to Rise Slowly
The inventory of available detached homes on the market has continued to rise gradually, and has likely reached its peak this year – or will very soon – before starting to drop toward the end of October. As you can see in the yearly cycles of Portland inventory on the Fidelity chart below, the number of listed homes begins to decline during this time of year and continues to lower throughout the Fall and Winter months. When we enter the number of available homes on the chart underneath, we can see that the current high level of inventory has shifted the market to a cool state.
| Portland inventory ranking | Hot or Cold Market? |
| 0 – 500 | On Fire (notice April of 2022) |
| 500 – 750 | Hot |
| 750 – 1,000 | Warm |
| 1,000 – 1,250 | Lukewarm |
| 1,250 – 1,500 | Cool (Currently) |
| 1,500 – 1,750 | Cold |
| 1,750 – 2,000 + | Frozen (last Oct. – Dec.) |
Despite this year’s cooler housing market, less currently active buyers and a high level of inventory make this a great time for buyers. In addition to more available homes to choose from, buyers can now take advantage of competition that works in their favor by driving prices down.
The Number of Homes with Price Drops is Increasing
The number of listed homes on the market that have undergone price drops has been steadily rising since June. In a small increase over our last report, just over 48% of homes have now had to lower their prices, or close to half of the available inventory of detached homes. With the currently diminishing buyer traffic, we can expect to see even more price drops throughout the remainder of 2023.
Average Prices are Decreasing
While average prices (calculated by price per square foot) have remained relatively static in 2023, they have been consistently lowering (if only slightly) over the last several months. Decreasing buyer activity combined with high inventory will continue to put pressure on sellers to lower their prices for at least the near future, making this an opportune moment for prospective homebuyers.
New Listings and Pending Sales are Decreasing
The number of new listings dropped in September at a somewhat more significant rate than in 2021 and 2022 – and this will contribute to the drop in inventory we expect to see later in October. In keeping with the pattern of recent years and following the seasonal cycles of the Portland real estate market, we can expect the number of new home listings to continue to decrease through the end of 2023.
Total pending sales of detached homes continued to decrease as well, coming much closer to the number of sales we saw at this time last year than at any other point during the year. Sales should continue to taper off in much the same way as recent years with less active buyers and fewer new listings entering the market.
The housing market of 2023 has shaped up to be much less productive than the hotter real estate markets of 2021 and 2022 – even by a third fewer sales during some months. This year’s subpar market performance is clearly illustrated on the graphs above, especially when contrasted with 2021 numbers. Both high interest rates and inflation have contributed to suppressing the housing market here in Portland and nationwide. To learn more about how these factors are shaping our local real estate market now and into the upcoming year, check out our real estate forecast for 2024.
When to Sell Your Home
In our current market, buyer interest is tapering off while the number of homes on the market has reached its peak for the year. Those who are trying to sell have to compete with the already high supply of listed homes in the face of low demand, a situation that does not work out in favor of sellers and usually leads to less-than-optimal sale prices. In contrast, the reinvigoration of the Portland housing market that comes every Spring will bring a new wave of homebuyers competing for a more limited pool of homes. This is the best opportunity for sellers every year, and when we always advise our clients to list their homes (if they can choose anytime they’d like to do so).
A Great Opportunity for Home Buyers
This is the time of year when market conditions shift to favor buyers, and right now is a great time to take advantage of the large selection of available homes to find your perfect Portland neighborhood or home for sale. Because there are fewer interested homebuyers, sellers are pressured to lower their prices to secure a sale, giving buyers the opportunity to find a great deal on a new home. Check out our comprehensive home search platform with filters you won’t find anywhere else, such as the “biggest price drop in the last 7 days” to discover homes in your price range that are available right now.
Work with Experienced Realtors
Whether you are interested in buying or selling a home, our extensive knowledge and experience in the Portland metro area is invaluable in guiding your buying and selling decisions. Our top 1% home buyer’s and seller’s teams provide top-notch customer service while charging a lower-than-average commission rate. You can reach us at 503-714-1111 or chat with the bot on this site – we’d love to get started today!
